Impact of climate change on food security in India: an evidence from autoregressive distributed lag model

Abstract

Food security is a critical global issue, particularly in India, and it is further exacerbated by the challenges posed by climate change. This study aims to examine the infuence of climate change on food security in India, utilizing annual time series data spanning from 1994 to 2019. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method, the study investigates the relationship between climate variables, area under cultivation, population growth, agricultural subsidies, and food production. The fndings indicate that expanding the cultivation area for food crops signifcantly enhances food security, with a 1% increase leading to a 2.4% increase in the short run and a 3.2% increase in the long run. Conversely, population growth has a detrimental efect on food security, with a 1% increase resulting in a decline of 3.8% in the short run and 7.8% in the long run. Climate variables also play a crucial role, as rising temperatures adversely impact food security, leading to a decrease of 1.2% in the short run and 1.7% in the long run for every 1% temperature increase. Rainfall, on the other hand, does not signifcantly afect food security in the long run, but a decrease in rainfall in the preceding period negatively impacts food security in the short run. Fur‑ thermore, agricultural subsidies, particularly fertilizer subsidies, impact food security posi‑ tively in the short run but have adverse efects in the long run. The study highlights the importance of sustainable land management, temperature control measures, water reserva‑ tion, and efective agricultural subsidies to address food security challenges. These fndings provide valuable insights for policymakers in designing efective strategies to ensure food security in India.